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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.